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2009/06/21

G8高峰會之真的復甦了嗎?

G8,不是句罵人的話,而是一個由世界八個經濟強國組成的一個分贓大會。讓他們討論著怎麼從其他國家的手中,悄悄的將財富重新分配的一個會議。主要是由美國、英國、加拿大、法國、德國、意大利、日本和俄羅斯八國所組成,而今年在義大利所舉辦的剛好是第三十四屆,所遇到的問題也應該是近幾年最大條的。

這次的會議於6/12,13在義大利南部的Lecce所舉行,主要還是在探討貨幣的供給是該緊還是該鬆,從去年金融風暴以來,每個國家都狂印鈔票,發行國債,舒困金有多少給多少。除了咱們對岸的那個黑手經濟體外,每個國家都在拿捏通澎與通縮和資金泛濫之間的複雜關係。最近(六月中),世界的老大哥才又要推出新一期國債樂透券,總計1040億美元,而這一期的中獎率,呀不~ 是利率則提高到了3.65%(十年期)。說實在的,以債券的角度來看,是個蠻划算的投資,但是這是建築在美元不走貶的情況之下。所以囉~ 聰明的阿六仔,最近偷偷的減碼了美國國債44億,達到7635億美元,畢竟那些錢拿去買個黃金、鐵礦之類的,都比去買那一堆紙有用。在會議中,每個國家都在尋求一個對自已國家最有利的方式來解決本身的困境,不過各國的財政首長還是都不敢也不想拒絕IMF的援助,畢竟整體經濟看起來,已經走向通貨緊縮的道路上。這一點,從美國的儲蓄率就可以看的出來(四月份的美國個人儲蓄在個人可支配收入中所占的比例為百分之五點七,為一九九五年二月以來的最高水平),不過,大家也不用高興的太早,他們存這麼多錢,也不見得用來消費,也不見得會拿來買大家的那些毛利低到不行的電子產品,應該是用來繳他們那積欠已久的卡費。這其實也是好事一件,他們要是通通破產了,那我們的東西要賣給誰呢? 另外,這次還通過了一項協議”Lecce Frame”,這項協議主要是用來規範金融從業人員的薪酬、重要金融機構及評級機構的監管、會計準則等事項。在目前各國政府階為各大銀行的債主的情況下,這項協議還有些用處,一旦景氣回溫,那些肥貓應該很快又會跳出籠子,為自已的利益大肆搜刮一番。

結語:回顧整體的會議及聲明,並看不出什麼特別的政策或是舉動來挽救整體的經濟,純粹只是以時間換取空間,唯一獲得的結論就是,美國的洞還是很大,麻煩各國政府多多拿出你們的外匯來買美債而已。而目前看起來,大概只有止穩而已,真正的復甦應該要等到2010年才有機會。

2009/06/02

Case Study- iPhone

1. Describe the mobile telecommunications industry in 2008. What are the main drivers of revenue for the different players?

In 2008, the 3G system gradually substituted original 2G (GSM) system and some companies in developed centuries also provide 3.5G (HSPDA) for their customers to enjoy faster transmission speed (3.6 Mbps). The main revenue from carrier most came from voice service but the percentage of data communication is increasing. By the success of iPhone, there were various companies provided smartphone for customers and people abandoned their PDA and switch to smartphone. The mobile manufacture market turned into a M-style market, smartphone and low-price cellphone. And there was also an interesting event appeared in China and India, that was the non-licensed cellphone, what we called 山寨手機. The 9th IC design house, Media Tek (MTK, Taiwan), provided a total solution for handset manufacturers. The completely solution shortened develop period from 6 month to 1 month and spread to mainland China quickly. The success of MTK also announced the end dynasty of TI GSM product line which was around 70% marketing in GSM.

2. What is your opinion about the entrance of Apple into the industry?

For Apple's iPhone marketing strategy, we can do it by Porter 5 force analysis.
For bargaining power of customers, they use charter sale to choose only one carrier for iPhone sale which ensure reasonable profit.
For the bargaining power of suppliers, they construct a fancy image of iPhone to EMS companies which force them cut price to earn the order. Besides, the component vendors also view it is a glory if they can put their components into iphone. The various cause help Apple to lower their BOM cost which is around 30% of price. ($ 174 from iSuppli analysis, but the retail price is $599)
For the threat of new entrants, such as Nokia, SE, and Samsung, also provide their smartphone recently, Apple always run before their enemies and provide fancy function. Their Apple store provide a platform for programmer to sale their program in the internet which also help to make iPhone become funny and meaningful. The support of various application program enrich the flexibility of Apple's iPhone.
For the threat of substitute products, the only one handset that could substitute iPhone is the next generation iPhone because there is no other company provide as product which integrate software and hardware as well as Apple. But the other company also can occupy the market where customers only want to use simple content or familiar with windows system.
For the intensity of competitive rivalry, they emphasize their distinct operation and plentiful content in iTunes. The biggest smartphone manufacture company, HTC (Taiwan), also provide same quality, even superior smartphone, but they still can't beat iPhone in single model because of content. People who use iPhone will utilize iTunes to manage their music and download various meaningful speech, radio, and teaching program for free or little charge. The content helps iPhone to distinguish from other manufacturer and stand in a higher place.

3. Do you think it is a good idea for the carriers to share part of their revenue with a handset manufacturer? Why?

In my point of view, it is not a good idea to ask money from Telephone Company because it will shrink their profit. But Apple did it! The unique of Apple and fancy operation make it become reality. In fact, most of handset manufacturer don't like this marketing strategy because they want the customers substitute their cellphone frequently rather than share part of carriers' revenue. They make more money in manufacture a new type of cellphone than share the revenue for carriers.

4. Do you think contracts like the one between Apple and O2, described in the case, will be pursued by other handset manufacturers, such as Nokia and Sony-Ericsson?

The other companies also want to share the revenue from the telephone company but they can't because of various product lines. The charter sale can help Apple to acquire profit from O2 but limit its market share in other carrier. Because Apple only has one model, they only focus one specific, niche market. When you sign the contract with one specific carrier, it means that you loss opportunity in other company. The only reason is iPhone has its uniqueness, but other handset doesn't. If Nokia or SE can provide a unique model, they also can authorize sale to specific carrier.