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2009/12/20

[讀書心得]創投之逆轉

創投(Venture Captical),一個令創業者又愛又恨的投資者,常常在創業的過程中扮演著重要的角色。為什麼突然會想看這本書呢? 原因很簡單,因為本書的作者所代表的創投也跟我目前所服務的公司有很深的關係,而公司的走向,似乎一一真實地在書中呈現。
這本書是由李志華與陳榮宏兩人合著,想不到兩個貴為董事長的人,文筆居然如此的生動流暢,一幕幕的商業競爭談判,躍於紙上,就像電影一樣在眼前播放。而這一系列的書籍,從微笑禿鷹、流氓創投到最近這兩本創投之終結與創投之逆轉,寫得完全是達利創投一路走來的投資史,也見證了創投的轉變。從一開始的投資海歸派,到後來專注在TARF(Turn Around and Rescue Fund),道盡了創投業,也可以說是目前台灣產業的轉變。
看了這本書,不外映證了達利創投在最近幾年的佈局。其實,在面板業高度整合上下游的目標之下,達利的確幫友達合併重整了不少公司,而每一筆交易,事後看來,似乎都算是蠻成功的。為什麼呢? 有蠻多案例中,達利並沒有投入太多金錢,但是卻成為了lead investor,掌握了公司的經營權,再加上外派過去的經營高層,都是一時之選,勵圖精治之下,都脫胎換骨,成為母公司cost down的好夥伴。當然,有部分也是被韓國人給逼的,導致面板這個行業,越投資越大,沒有自已的出海口,就只能從節流下手,將台灣人cost down的能力發揮到極致。
不過,這都是題外話,重點在於,這本書中透露出不少察顏觀色的技巧,簡直就是一場訛於我詐的戰場,難怪人家都說商場如戰場,也如同作者自己形容創投就像禿鷹一般,目光精確,下手兇狠。前幾年,隨著集團化的演變,每家公司或多或少都被貼了一些標籤,這也給了創投一些機會,尤其是像達利這種集團下的創投,主要是為集團在作未來十年、二十年的規畫作準備,特別提供了不少合併或投資的機會。
就目前來看,金融風暴所帶來的低迷景氣,似乎轉向回升的階段,接下來,投資機構所成立的私募基金將會慢慢的跑出來和這些集團底下的創投競爭,這個時間勞資間的天平將會轉向勞方傾斜,創業的機會也會增多,產業也許會從降低成本的方向轉向創意產業,或許,這才是台灣產業升級的利基吧!

2009/06/21

G8高峰會之真的復甦了嗎?

G8,不是句罵人的話,而是一個由世界八個經濟強國組成的一個分贓大會。讓他們討論著怎麼從其他國家的手中,悄悄的將財富重新分配的一個會議。主要是由美國、英國、加拿大、法國、德國、意大利、日本和俄羅斯八國所組成,而今年在義大利所舉辦的剛好是第三十四屆,所遇到的問題也應該是近幾年最大條的。

這次的會議於6/12,13在義大利南部的Lecce所舉行,主要還是在探討貨幣的供給是該緊還是該鬆,從去年金融風暴以來,每個國家都狂印鈔票,發行國債,舒困金有多少給多少。除了咱們對岸的那個黑手經濟體外,每個國家都在拿捏通澎與通縮和資金泛濫之間的複雜關係。最近(六月中),世界的老大哥才又要推出新一期國債樂透券,總計1040億美元,而這一期的中獎率,呀不~ 是利率則提高到了3.65%(十年期)。說實在的,以債券的角度來看,是個蠻划算的投資,但是這是建築在美元不走貶的情況之下。所以囉~ 聰明的阿六仔,最近偷偷的減碼了美國國債44億,達到7635億美元,畢竟那些錢拿去買個黃金、鐵礦之類的,都比去買那一堆紙有用。在會議中,每個國家都在尋求一個對自已國家最有利的方式來解決本身的困境,不過各國的財政首長還是都不敢也不想拒絕IMF的援助,畢竟整體經濟看起來,已經走向通貨緊縮的道路上。這一點,從美國的儲蓄率就可以看的出來(四月份的美國個人儲蓄在個人可支配收入中所占的比例為百分之五點七,為一九九五年二月以來的最高水平),不過,大家也不用高興的太早,他們存這麼多錢,也不見得用來消費,也不見得會拿來買大家的那些毛利低到不行的電子產品,應該是用來繳他們那積欠已久的卡費。這其實也是好事一件,他們要是通通破產了,那我們的東西要賣給誰呢? 另外,這次還通過了一項協議”Lecce Frame”,這項協議主要是用來規範金融從業人員的薪酬、重要金融機構及評級機構的監管、會計準則等事項。在目前各國政府階為各大銀行的債主的情況下,這項協議還有些用處,一旦景氣回溫,那些肥貓應該很快又會跳出籠子,為自已的利益大肆搜刮一番。

結語:回顧整體的會議及聲明,並看不出什麼特別的政策或是舉動來挽救整體的經濟,純粹只是以時間換取空間,唯一獲得的結論就是,美國的洞還是很大,麻煩各國政府多多拿出你們的外匯來買美債而已。而目前看起來,大概只有止穩而已,真正的復甦應該要等到2010年才有機會。

2009/06/02

Case Study- iPhone

1. Describe the mobile telecommunications industry in 2008. What are the main drivers of revenue for the different players?

In 2008, the 3G system gradually substituted original 2G (GSM) system and some companies in developed centuries also provide 3.5G (HSPDA) for their customers to enjoy faster transmission speed (3.6 Mbps). The main revenue from carrier most came from voice service but the percentage of data communication is increasing. By the success of iPhone, there were various companies provided smartphone for customers and people abandoned their PDA and switch to smartphone. The mobile manufacture market turned into a M-style market, smartphone and low-price cellphone. And there was also an interesting event appeared in China and India, that was the non-licensed cellphone, what we called 山寨手機. The 9th IC design house, Media Tek (MTK, Taiwan), provided a total solution for handset manufacturers. The completely solution shortened develop period from 6 month to 1 month and spread to mainland China quickly. The success of MTK also announced the end dynasty of TI GSM product line which was around 70% marketing in GSM.

2. What is your opinion about the entrance of Apple into the industry?

For Apple's iPhone marketing strategy, we can do it by Porter 5 force analysis.
For bargaining power of customers, they use charter sale to choose only one carrier for iPhone sale which ensure reasonable profit.
For the bargaining power of suppliers, they construct a fancy image of iPhone to EMS companies which force them cut price to earn the order. Besides, the component vendors also view it is a glory if they can put their components into iphone. The various cause help Apple to lower their BOM cost which is around 30% of price. ($ 174 from iSuppli analysis, but the retail price is $599)
For the threat of new entrants, such as Nokia, SE, and Samsung, also provide their smartphone recently, Apple always run before their enemies and provide fancy function. Their Apple store provide a platform for programmer to sale their program in the internet which also help to make iPhone become funny and meaningful. The support of various application program enrich the flexibility of Apple's iPhone.
For the threat of substitute products, the only one handset that could substitute iPhone is the next generation iPhone because there is no other company provide as product which integrate software and hardware as well as Apple. But the other company also can occupy the market where customers only want to use simple content or familiar with windows system.
For the intensity of competitive rivalry, they emphasize their distinct operation and plentiful content in iTunes. The biggest smartphone manufacture company, HTC (Taiwan), also provide same quality, even superior smartphone, but they still can't beat iPhone in single model because of content. People who use iPhone will utilize iTunes to manage their music and download various meaningful speech, radio, and teaching program for free or little charge. The content helps iPhone to distinguish from other manufacturer and stand in a higher place.

3. Do you think it is a good idea for the carriers to share part of their revenue with a handset manufacturer? Why?

In my point of view, it is not a good idea to ask money from Telephone Company because it will shrink their profit. But Apple did it! The unique of Apple and fancy operation make it become reality. In fact, most of handset manufacturer don't like this marketing strategy because they want the customers substitute their cellphone frequently rather than share part of carriers' revenue. They make more money in manufacture a new type of cellphone than share the revenue for carriers.

4. Do you think contracts like the one between Apple and O2, described in the case, will be pursued by other handset manufacturers, such as Nokia and Sony-Ericsson?

The other companies also want to share the revenue from the telephone company but they can't because of various product lines. The charter sale can help Apple to acquire profit from O2 but limit its market share in other carrier. Because Apple only has one model, they only focus one specific, niche market. When you sign the contract with one specific carrier, it means that you loss opportunity in other company. The only reason is iPhone has its uniqueness, but other handset doesn't. If Nokia or SE can provide a unique model, they also can authorize sale to specific carrier.


2009/05/12

Multi-Touch Analysis

Multi-Touch, undoubtedly, will be a new star in 2009 with the birth of Win7 though it was developed for several years. In 2002, the famous film “Minority Report” (關鍵報告), Tom Cruz had declared that people will use their fingers to substitute the use of keyboard and mouse. The success of iPod/iPhone was also a motive force to make it closer to the public, and make the use of electronic devices more intuitively.

How does this technology become popular?
From iPod/iPhone appeared on the world, the intuitive touching and user friendly interface silently change the habit of end user. Open up with a little click and zoom in by drag the picture, the multi-touch technology lower the doorsill of using complicated electronic device. If there are not so many patent restrictions (from Apple and other start-up company), I could make an assumption that the touching technology will substitute the butons in the near future. From the application point of view, multi-touch provides an interactive way for enterprise to get closer to their customers by touching billboard. With the decreasing price and creative application, the multi-touch technology will walk into everyone’s life unwittingly.

So what we gonna to do?
Enjoy the technology and find a niche application is what we can do right now. My suggestion for big company is to provide a total solution from idea to realization. Construct a series model for various applications for customer to apply for their products. For star-up or small companies, focus on the content is a good choice. No matter how advance technology do you use, the fantasy content is the killer. Develop a customized application of customer or authorized to large enterprise is the fast and stable way to succeed.


Appendix
Touch Panel Growth Rate

2009/05/10

西班牙文問候語初體驗~

美國中情局的統計(2005年)

根據美國中央情報局出版的世界概況估計,現時世界各種語言按語言人口的排列如下:
排名 語言名稱 總人口 (億人) 佔全球人口比例
1 漢語官話 8.74 14.37%
2 印地語 3.66 6.02%
3 英語 3.41 5.61%
4 西班牙語 3.22 5.59%
5 孟加拉語 2.07 3.40%
6 葡語 1.67 2.75%
7 俄語 1.60 2.63%
8 日語 1.25 2.06%

西班牙文(España),這個世界的第四大語文,學一學對身體其實也沒有什麼壞處。雖然說學再多也不見得聽得懂人家在喇叭什麼~

趁著今天有空,把之前學的一些西班牙文拿出來複習一下也好~ 好歹也可以跟人家說聲Hola!

1. Hola....................................................哈囉,念法:歐啦
2. Buenos di'as ...................................早安,念法:剝一no思 迪亞思
3. Buenas tardes ................................午安,念法:剝一那思 踏得勒思
4. Buenas noches................................晚安,念法:剝一那思 no去死
5. Adio's..................................................再見,念法:阿迪歐斯
6. Hasta la vista..................................再見 (可能很久不會再見的那一種),念法:阿思塔 啦 V思塔
7. Por favor..........................................請,念法:博 發伯
8. Gracias.............................................謝謝,念法:格拉希亞斯
9. Perdo'n ............................................抱歉,念法:柏登

學會了這九句呢,基本上跟沒學差不多,但是至少可以跟人家打個招呼
至於更深一點的呢~ 就等我學到再來跟大家分享一下囉~

2009/04/21

原來也有不加豆芽菜的鐵板燒

夏慕尼 新香榭鐵板燒
地址:竹北市光明一路128號一樓
電話:(03)657-0648
網址:http://www.chamonix.com.tw/index.htm

相信大家都有吃過鐵板燒吧~ 在高達數百度的高溫鐵板上,師傅用俐落的鏟子將各式肉類、海鮮及青菜,高溫快炒一番,將最真實的原味鎖在本體裡面,而坐在鐵板之前,讓人感到十足的溫暖幸福○
在上個禮拜,咱們的部門聚餐就前往了這一家位於竹北,鼎鼎大名的鐵板燒--夏慕尼,這家隸屬於王品集團,所提供的是精緻的鐵板燒料理,相當受到竹科的"潘仔新貴"的喜愛。雖然說價位不便宜,一份套餐就要價$980,但是在新竹還是常常座無虛席,常常訂不到位呢~
這家店的菜單如下圖所示,共有分為開胃菜、麵包、湯、沙拉、主餐、炒飯、甜點及飲料。

看起來好像相當的普通,但是精緻的程度,實在是沒丟王品集團的臉呀~ 接下來就一道一道的為大家介紹:

首先上的是開胃菜的部分,它是採取類似西班牙tarpas的做法,分為三道小菜,讓你一次一口吃掉,由左至右分別是:煙燻鮭魚、鴨賞無花果、蝦沙拉。其中個人最喜愛的就是鴨賞無花果,鴨賞濃郁的香味配上無花果的清爽,吃了之後,完完全全達到開胃的效果,讓人口水直流。

沙拉的話,我選的是軟殼蟹沙拉,我還蠻喜歡吃軟殼蟹的,但是做成沙拉這倒是第一次吃,想不到還蠻搭的~ 唯一可惜的是,只有半隻而已~ XD

而主菜的部分,它們則是提供了香蒜牛小排、白蘭地鴨胸、法式海鮮盤、凱薩琳牛排、波特牛肋眼及法式羊小排供客人做選擇。我點的是香蒜牛小排,這是約7oz重的菲力部位,筋最少,肉最嫩。因為牛排煎完之後還會放在鐵板上保溫一會,所以建議吃個五分熟,這樣肉汁才夠味,再配上海鹽一塊食用,即可享用到牛肉的原味。不過個人還是比較喜愛加黑胡椒醬一塊吃才好吃。

這個是師傅在烹調鴨賞,採用白蘭地入位去除鴨賞的澀味,點火燒除酒精後,完全都沒酒味。

沒吃飽是不是? 沒關係,我們還有櫻花蝦炒飯加鐵板大白菜,這道炒飯真的是有夠好吃,用土雞蛋下去伴炒,再加上蝦卵及櫻花蝦調味,讓人吃完一碗還想再叫一碗。

吃完了正餐,甜點馬上上來~ 我點的是巧克力慕思~ 味道還不賴!

這是我同事點的焦糖布丁,聽說吃起來有85度C的fu~

評語:還不賴! 只是要價980元還是有點貴,看來還是肥仔龍適合我。

2009/04/01

2008西班牙強攻火槍兵 Part (VI)--聖山蒙塞拉特與黑面聖母

蒙塞拉特(Montserrat),這座位於巴塞隆那(Barcelona)西北邊郊區的聖山。古時候曾是一座修道院,而在裡面則是供奉著一個非常靈驗的黑面聖母。在11世紀的時候,這座聖母碼利亞的神蹟即傳便整個歐洲,再加上此地怪石磷峋,更增添了它的神祕色彩。
我們先坐地鐵至Esponya站,然後尋著標示前往Montserat的月台買票,而票有分兩種,一種是火車+纜車(€34.5),另一種則是火車+小火車(€21),很不巧的,我們當天只能夠挑乘火車+小火車。雖然是在巴塞隆那近郊,但是也花了我們快兩個小時才到。而這個地方給我們的第一印像則是這一定是外星人建造的,為什麼呢? 你可以想像在一片平原當中,陡然凸起一片怪石嗎? Montserrat就是這麼一個地方。

首先看到的是那造物者充滿創意的作品,每一顆石頭都有他獨特的形狀,而組合起來又有不同的感覺。不過倒是讓我想起二十一世紀少年裡的獨眼機器人,想不到居然在西班牙出現~
























走到修道院門口,可以看到騎士守護著。本來想學一下他的pose的,後來怕被人家趕出去,還是用正常的拍。
這就是傳說中的黑面聖母,大概排了快二十分鐘才看到!
想不到西班牙也有所謂的光明燈,不過還蠻貴的,所以就沒點了~ (謎之聲:難怪今年做什麼都不太順)

回到巴塞隆那之後,尤於離晚餐還有一段時間,我們就先前往米拉之家 (Casa Mila)
參觀,大概是在地鐵Diagonal站旁邊。這座建築不用說,看外形就知道又是高第的作品。那圓弧狀的外型,從內到外完全沒有一點陵角,呈現出波浪狀的美感。

好不容易撐到八點,終於可以到餐廳吃飯囉! 我們似乎愛上了西班牙Tapas加上Sangaria(紅酒雞尾酒)的滋味,又去點了一堆的Tapas來吃。不過我們最愛的還是那炸馬鈴薯配上千島醬,每次都必點,而那海鮮沙拉的滋味也是相當的不錯,至於旁邊那個類似魚子醬配洋蔥沙拉則是這一餐的地雷,一直到現在還是不知道當時是怎麼把它給吃完的!